Mumbai terrorist attacks partially planned in Pakistan

Islamabad hands over Mumbai probe report to New Delhi

Mumbai attacks partially planned in Pakistan: Malik

* Interior adviser claims arrest of main operator in attacks, five others
* Says Pakistan needs more information from India
* System of several countries used to launch attacks

By Sajjad Malik/Tahir Niaz

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has formally handed over the details of its investigation into the Mumbai terror attacks to India, the Foreign Office said on Thursday as Adviser to the Prime Minister on Interior Rehman Malik admitted that the attacks were ‘partially planned’ in Pakistan.

“The Indian high commissioner was ... [on Thursday given] material pertaining to the Mumbai terror attacks probe by the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA), by the foreign secretary,” said Foreign Office spokesman Abdul Basit.

Arrests: Meanwhile at a press conference, Rehman Malik announced ‘breakthrough’ arrests in the Mumbai probe, and admitted that the Mumbai attacks were partially planned in Pakistan. He said some of the suspects were linked to Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LT). Rehman said a case was registered on Thursday under the Anti-Terrorism Act against eight suspects – including LT’s Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, Hammad Amin and Zarar Shah – on charges of “abetting, directing, conspiring and facilitating a terrorist act”. Six of these suspects are in the custody of intelligence agencies, and all will be tried under Pakistani law.

“Some funds for the attacks were transferred from Spain and Italy,” he said.

Karachi: Rehman said the suspects used three boats, all of which have been seized, to sail from Karachi to Mumbai between November 26 and 28, 2008.

More information: Rehman, however, said these findings were not final and Pakistan needed more information from India. He said the Indian authorities had been asked to answer 30 questions raised by the Pakistani investigators.

Other countries: The adviser said “the system of various other countries” was also used to plan the attacks. Rehman said two more men were being held, and identified them only as Khan and Riaz. Other leads pointed to Europe and the US, and Malik said Pakistan would ask the FBI for help. (Daily Times)

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Editorial: India should appreciate Pakistan’s efforts

The press statement by Rehman Malik, the prime minister’s advisor on interior, on the Mumbai attacks and Pakistan’s investigative follow-up is significant. It proves, without doubt, that Islamabad has been pursuing the case diligently and in line with its promise to do so. It also indicates, if such proof were ever required, that the government was sincere in condemning the Mumbai attack and was not complicit in it, a wild allegation made by India as part of its diplomatic offensive to isolate Pakistan and paint it as a sponsor of terrorism.

Mr Malik told the press Thursday that it was an extensive plan and some part of the conspiracy was hatched in Pakistan. He said that Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, the alleged mastermind, is already in custody while six other accused have been arrested. Two other wanted men are still at large. One of those in custody, according to Malik, was “lured back to Pakistan from the Spanish city of Barcelona”. He also revealed that the attackers and their handlers used Austrian SIM cards for communication and there was also a link to Houston, Texas. The bit about the Austrian SIM cards dovetails with some detail in the Indian dossier about the communication mode of the attackers. Meanwhile, Pakistani authorities have still not been able to determine the identities of the nine attackers killed in the 3-day shoot-out, though the one captured alive has been accepted as a Pakistani national.

This is good work and, as we have said earlier in our editorials, concerned agencies in Pakistan have been on this case even before India officially sent in its dossier. Let it also be said that this work did not stop even when Indian officials began to threaten Pakistan with a military response. Pakistan kept its cool in the face of aggression by the Indian media and the government but obviously enhanced its air and ground vigilance against any possible Indian adventurism. Now, with Mr Malik’s statement, it should be obvious that India needed to have shown more patience because putting together the links of such an extensive and sophisticated plan needs time.

There are two other important factors that we have to keep in mind. One, without doubt, Mr Malik has disclosed less than what the investigators know at this stage and for sound reasons too. There are likely to be more strands that need to be identified. Investigators cannot, in most such cases, put everything on the table because it can compromise their work. Even now, Mr Malik has probably had to come on record on these disclosures because India has made this into a political game of blaming Pakistan. Something needed to be revealed to relieve the pressure on Pakistan by India. Two, even at this stage, there may not be enough evidence to stand in a court of law. Pakistan has been rightly pointing to this problem. Whenever this case goes to court, it being a criminal case, the onus of responsibility for proving it will lie on the prosecution, not the defence. Trial lawyers know how difficult that can be. There are innumerable cases where culprits have walked out despite pieces of incriminating but circumstantial evidence against them. Hence the evidence, even if circumstantial, must add up to become conclusive, or at least largely so. This is another aspect that makes the job of putting together a watertight case so tedious and difficult.

At this stage, however, it is evident that Pakistan has covered impressive distance in unearthing the broad strands of this plan. Given its efforts, we should expect more disclosures in the near future. There is also a requirement for India to cooperate with Pakistan, a fact that Islamabad has long stressed. The dossier itself is not enough.

So, the questions we have to ask are: What more does India know? When and how will it share this with Pakistan? Interestingly, an Indian team has gone to the US to share evidence with the FBI. That’s fine, but how about doing the same with Pakistan? Surely, India cannot continue to blame Pakistan and press for results without being fully cooperative. This is where politics comes in. New Delhi has already pressed the pause button on the normalisation process, depriving itself and Pakistan of the one mechanism for cooperation that could have helped matters. It now makes eminent sense that it should press the play button again so things can move forward. That’s what we are hoping for because there is no alternative to a dialogue framework. (Daily Times)

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The Gujaratis of Pakistan - By Aakar Patel

The Gujaratis of Pakistan

Sunday, February 08, 2009
Aakar Patel

Pakistan has fewer Gujaratis than it should, and that is to its detriment. Even so, the Gujaratis of Pakistan are its best citizens. None of the people on the list that follows are big in the field of literature, since Gujaratis are not particularly interested in that. This is because the trading instinct of Gujaratis tilts them towards the culture of Jains, whose texts are not in Sanskrit.

The Gujarati qualities are pragmatism and industry. Their courage is different from the courage of North India, which is martial. A Gujarati is brave with his gamble. The language of the stock market and the betting industry in India is Gujarati and is centred in Bombay. Unlike north Indians -- Punjabis in particular -- Gujaratis are a high-trust society. In Surat, the only major city of Gujarat to escape religious violence, the bond comes from trading between Hindus and Muslims.

Unusually among Indian castes, even the peasantry in Gujarat does not put too much premium on martial honour.

The Patels worship Krishna in his Ranchhod form. Ranchhod means 'he who fled from battle'. It refers to Krishna's retreat from Mathura under attack from Jarasandh's general Kalyavan, and then his flight, running away when he was challenged. This act of wisdom saved him and Gujaratis recognise it though it's not godlike behaviour.

Pragmatism, getting on with it, is what defines Gujaratis of all religions. It is what their identity is about. This is not to say that they are not susceptible to emotion. Gujarati Muslims helped partition India, but without understanding what they were getting into.

Aga Khan III, leader of the Ismaili Khojas (Jinnah's community), helped found the Muslim League in 1906, and the Syedna of the Bohra community gave his blessings to Pakistan, though only barely. The Dawoodi Bohras are an amazing Gujarati community. They are deeply religious but are not inclined to pan-national Islam. They are very good businessmen and very good citizens.

For some reason the Syedna encourages his flock to trade and discourages them from taking jobs under Hindus, writing in a book that this was akin to slavery. Even so, India and Pakistan are much better off because of the Bohras of Gujarat, Bombay and Karachi.

The Memons gave full tilt support to separatism, helping Jinnah win 40 out of 40 reserved Muslim seats for Bombay in the 1945-46 elections. But Pakistan rewarded them with nationalisation and the Nishtar Park bombing. The Gujaratis did not understand the destination when they set off on their religious journey with Jinnah.

Pakistan's attack on language, one of Jinnah's staggering mistakes, has decapitated Gujarati in Karachi. By ordering the monopoly of Urdu, a language he could barely speak and couldn't read, Jinnah began the process of cultural erosion that made religion supreme in Pakistan. His hair would have stood on end if Jinnah had been able to actually communicate with his constituents in Urdu. But all of these men would have been comfortable talking to each other in their mother tongue, and with their shared values.

Abdul Sattar Edhi

Like Gandhi, Edhi is from Kathiawar and probably speaks Gujarati in the sing-song dialect that south Gujaratis from Surat find funny. Born in Bantva, a village that has produced many great men, Edhi is representative of an individualism that Gujaratis are familiar with. His act of giving dignity to the dead is in particular a Gujarati trait. In Gujarati cities, cremation is free for everyone, and the wood for pyres is donated anonymously by merchants.

The world recognises the quality of Edhi. He has won the Magsaysay award, and the Nobel prize for peace ought to be his by right. Given the loopy Nobel nominations of the past (Kissinger, Al Gore) and the omissions (Gandhi, Biko), it may not really matter if this great man doesn't get it. Edhi is called the Mother Teresa of Pakistan. But unlike her he does not inject religion into his charity.

M A Jinnah

Quaid-e-Azam was a constitutionalist before he was anything else. He should have been valued in the subcontinent for that alone, but we are a people who perennially clamour for identity. After Partition, he would have been comfortable neither in India's anarchic democracy nor in Pakistan's anarchic theocracy. He liked order and he had values.

He was a man of refined European taste who would have disliked Bollywood, and would have been unable to access Faiz and Manto. He spoke Gujarati well and I translated an interview of his from the archives of the Gujarati magazine Visami Sadi (20th century). He told his interviewer in 1916 that the quality a man should be admired for was independence.

It is said the Labour Party denied him a ticket because he was "too much of a toff". He was a superb advocate, possibly the best of his time, as his defence of Bhagat Singh showed. He was deeply secular for most of his life, a truly great man and the greatest Gujarati of Pakistan.

Javed Miandad

Who is Pakistan's best Gujarati cricketer? We have the brothers from Junagadh, Mushtaq and Hanif Mohmmad and of course Danish Kaneria, the Gujarati whose name his own countrymen cannot say property (it is Dinesh -- Lord of the Day). And then we have Javed Miandad, Pakistan's greatest cricketer of any community. Less popular than Imran because he is dark and speaks Urdu nasally like a Gujarati, Miandad is nonetheless the man that people would want to bat for their lives.

His heroism is not from his machismo but from his refusal to be defeated. He broke the hearts of Indians with his last-ball six off Chetan Sharma in Sharjah, but he truly let his Indian fans down by arranging his son's marriage to Dawood Ibrahim's daughter.

Maj-Gen A O Mitha

Aboobaker Osman Mitha had a Hindu wife. His fellow officers would have been wary of him for this fact given the Pakistan army's indoctrination, and he would probably have been more comfortable in the Indian army.

He would certainly have been uneasy with the one Muslim equals 10 Hindus bombast of his army, especially after 93,000 Pakistanis surrendered in Dhaka. Mitha, a Memon from South Bombay, was one of the few intellectual officers in the army who grasped immediately what the problem in East Pakistan was. Lt-Gen Niazi's memoir, The Betrayal of East Pakistan, has a telling paragraph, a message that Mitha sent to the GHQ on reaching Dhaka:

"This operation has now developed into a civil war. No long-distance moves, no rail moves possible. No ferries of boats available. In fact, movement has become the chief obstacle for conducting operations or restoring economy and will remain so for some time…"

Pakistan was partitioned through civil war, not India's perfidy. Mitha's book, Unlikely Beginnings, is the best written by a Pakistani soldier. Bhutto, always one to do the wrong thing, sacked him, a fatal mistake.

Ahmad Dawood

The Memons are converts from the caste of Luhanas and they speak a mix of Kutchchi and Gujarati. Among India's Sunnis they are the peerless merchants, superior to the Chiniotis of Punjab, the Malabaris of Kerala and even the neo-mercantile Gujaratis, like the Sunni Bohras of Rander.

Ahmad Dawood left Bombay and moved to Karachi with Jinnah. He set up mills in Burewala, Lawrencepur and Karachi. The Dawood family's businesses also span insurance, chemicals and paper.

Bhutto skewered the Memons with Mubashir Hasan's half-baked economic ideas, taking over businesses that the government had no competence to manage. Dawood Petroleum was nationalised in 1974, as was Habib Bank. There is no chance that the Pakistan state would have been able to run any business as well as the Memons, and many of them migrated to Europe in that period, their second flight after 1947. But resilience is one of their qualities and the Memons still dominate large parts of Pakistani industry (ARY is owned by a Memon).

Ardeshir Cowasjee

The story is that when the Parsis landed in Gujarat, fleeing the Arabs under Caliph Abu Bakr (RA), they were sent a glass brimful of milk by the Rana of Sanjan. This indicated that there was no room in his land for more people. The Parsis added sugar to the milk and sent it back.

It is indisputable that the Parsis, the greatest community of Bombay, have sweetened India. The people of Bombay believe that Parsis lose their marbles after 60. All interviews and profiles of Cowasjee mention the man's eccentricity. Despite his grouchiness, and constant predictions of doom, Cowasjee is an optimist. Someone who has written as many decades on the issues he has would surely have stopped if he did not believe change were possible.

As a journalist, Cowasjee is methodical as Parsis are. He reported Zardari's illiteracy ("may Gaad give us strut to save Pakistan") or dyslexia at the Mazar-e-Quaid. Every paper in Pakistan – journalism is the laziest profession on the subcontinent -- bought the state's version and ran him down till he demonstrated that he did not write things he had not verified. He represents the best of Gujarat and the best of Pakistan. (The News)

The writer is a former newspaper editor who lives in Bombay. Email: aakar.patel@ gmail.com
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Derailed de-radicalisation

Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Zeenia Satti

Just like the Afghan war was allowed to turn into Pakistan's civil war, similarly, the Mumbai attacks are likely to usher in civil unrest in Punjab. While events in neighbouring countries adversely impact Pakistan's domestic politics, the same are cited internationally as the manifestations of Pakistan failing as a state. Both Musharraf and Zardari have allowed their country's political milieu to be defined by outside powers. When a state allows its domestic political relations to be determined by outside powers, it brings upon itself the misfortune of losing control over its polity and becoming thus a failed state. The Pakistani incumbents have hurled their country down this slope lock stock and barrel.

Counter terrorism is an evolutionary process. All over the world, governments try to de-radicalise radical groups through facilitating disengagement from radicalism and promoting involvement with peaceful activities. Political discourse on de-radicalisation and counter terrorism is occupied with developing mechanisms for "disengagement" from radicalism through an "integrated" approach.

It would be to Pakistan's long term advantage if radical groups could be disengaged from cross border military pursuits and engaged instead in peaceful activities inside Pakistan. The eradication of poverty and hunger, the professionalization of down trodden youth, provision of health care, education, and shelter for the homeless are all fit subjects for jihad in Islam. If a radical organization has already established such activities in Pakistan, the state should lend it hearty support and protection while continuing to monitor its activities.

Demobilization and disengagement, as defined in political science, are the best antidote to terrorism. At present, many countries in the world are strategizing "disengagement from radicalism" at different levels, including Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, India, Algeria, Indonesia, Colombia, and Malaysia.

Unfortunately, while governments beset with terrorism elsewhere are painfully striving to set up disengagement programs, the Zardari government has just shut down such a program in Pakistan. The post Mumbai clamp down on JUD and the closure of its schools is a political blunder. The LeT's transformation into JUD is a model of disengagement countries faced with radical groups dream of achieving. Islamabad could have utilized the Mumbai attacks to demobilize the LeT by standing up for JUD and rendering it open to international scrutiny. It could have used its media to provide extensive coverage to JUD's civic activities and should have lent it whole hearted praise. This would not only have instilled in the JUD and its followers a heightened sense of patriotism, it would also have helped it purge those elements that are given to violence. To de-radicalise, one has to facilitate cooperative relations and capacity development. Mumbai could have been utilized to promote a change in JUD syllabus.

Mumbai challenged the political world view of jihadi groups that seek a solution to the Kashmir problem through terrorism. The fact that the Mumbai attacks had a severely negative bearing on the Kashmiri struggle should have been the "cognitive opening" used by Pakistan to divide a wedge between the LeT and the JUD, to the detriment of the former so as to completely dehydrate its military life line. Islamabad could then tackle the LeT leadership to New Delhi's satisfaction but without a negative fall out on itself. Through erudite policy, Islamabad could promote a fundamental change within all its militarized groups' political understanding of the Kashmir problem, facilitating the abandonment of their cross border ventures.

Ever since the CIA had Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and his secular, progressive politics eliminated through Pakistan's military, Pakistan has been steadily infiltrated with religious groups who are funded by petro dollars and adhere to a reactionary version of Islam espoused by Saudi Arabia. The Islamisation of Pakistan has thus gone on imperceptibly for almost thirty years during which time reactionary groups have dotted the entire landscape of Pakistan. Yet, Pakistanis have never empowered religious parties in any of their general elections. It is now well established that the sole exception of the MMA victory in the 2002 election was a fraud perpetrated by the Musharraf regime.

Militarily, in the past the Islamist groups were never a threat to Pakistan as the focus of their activities remained Indian occupied Kashmir and Soviet Occupied Afghanistan. Since 9/11, both India and the U.S have launched a policy towards Pakistan that has not only intensified the militarization of radical groups within Pakistan but has also cleverly shifted their target to Islamabad. Islamabad is unwittingly abetting this policy.

The Pakistani Islamist groups have come into being over a long period of time and were sustained by regional developments. The same developments can be used to dismantle these groups but Pakistan needs time for this. Those who show no patience in this task are averse to Pakistan's internal cohesion.

Zardari is providing even more incentive then Musharraf to the radical groups to swell their ranks and shift the target of their militarism to Islamabad. Disillusionment, after much hope has been shattered, makes people turn away from democracy to other means. The longing for a leadership that addresses the emotional grievances of people is making the Pakistani youth vulnerable to extremism. Zardari has refused to fulfil a single hope of the anti Musharraf movement. When such a government launches punitive action against any group, it not only reinforces the group's clandestine camaraderie but even promotes camaraderie where none already exists. Islamabad could have used the Mumbai attacks to promote de-radicalisation in an erudite manner; instead, it has pursued policies that are more likely to radicalise and destabilise Punjab. (The News)


The writer is a consultant and analyst of energy geopolitics based in Washington DC. Email: zeenia.satti@yahoo.com
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Acting on the Mumbai dossier - By Praful Bidwai

Saturday, January 10, 2009 (The News)

Six weeks after the Mumbai attacks, the Indian government is still groping for a strategy to get Pakistan to crack down on Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and other extremists. The Pakistani government has finally admitted that Amir Ajmal is a Pakistani national--but only after unfairly sacking National Security Adviser Mahmud Ali Durrani for saying just that. Yet, important sections of Pakistan's establishment continue to deny that the attacks were masterminded from Pakistan, which must bring their perpetrators to justice. And while the likelihood of a military conflict has receded, it has certainly not disappeared. South Asia still stands close to the precipice. The irony of India's strategic confusion is that it's playing its diplomatic cards badly vis-à-vis Pakistan, just when it has collected high-quality evidence of the LeT's role in the Mumbai attacks. Its 69-page dossier contains vital details of real-time Nov 26-29 conversations between the assailants and Pakistan-based top-level LeT operators. Thus, a day after India officially presented the dossier to Pakistan, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh repeatedly accused it of using "terrorism as an instrument of state policy." He treated Pakistan as a homogeneous entity, charged it with "whipping up war hysteria" and blamed its "fragile" government, presumably including the civilian government, for the neighbourhood's "uncertain security environment": the "more fragile a government, the more it tends to act in an irresponsible fashion." This runs counter to the rationale of the India-Pakistan peace process and the Joint Anti-Terrorism Mechanism active since March 2007. It also makes nonsense of New Delhi's considered view, expressed in many briefings, that Pakistan's civilian government is keen on friendly relations with India and on acting against jihadi terrorists, and needs to be supported. Singh adduced no evidence to prove the Pakistani government's active involvement in the Mumbai attacks. His charges were based on a general political assessment, surmise or inference, similar to that drawn by Home Minister P Chidambaram--namely, "in a crime of this size and scale, I will presume that it was state-assisted, until the contrary is proved. I will draw an adverse inference…" Such inference fits past patterns in which the ISI diabolically instigated terrorist violence in Kashmir and Afghanistan while practising "plausible deniability." It may well hold true of Mumbai too, although there are persuasive hypotheses that suggest that the ISI's role may be confined to logistical support. However, the assessment must be specifically established in Mumbai's case. Singh levelled a serious charge based on a surmise unsupported by solid proof. This speaks of serious policy incoherence. If India's objective, as Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon put it, is to get Pakistan to further investigate the LeT's role in planning and executing the operation, then it's counterproductive to point fingers at Pakistan in ways which would put up even the civilian government back. If the goal is to discredit Pakistan, then it's pointless to share the dossier with it. This incoherence is partly explained by New Delhi's frustration with Pakistan's stonewalling tactics and attempt to divert international attention from Mumbai to the dangers of an India-Pakistan war. But this response isn't mature. The world still remains focused on Mumbai, not least because of the terrorists' ruthlessness and use of guns in public places. Again, India has publicly made demands upon Pakistan to surrender between 25 and 42 extremists, including recent fugitives and Khalistani terrorists of the 1980s--without having a legal forum enforce these, for instance through an extradition treaty. The Mumbai attacks are an ideal case for the International Criminal Court. But India and Pakistan have refused to sign the ICC's Rome Treaty on narrowly nationalist grounds. India can also evoke the 1987 SAARC Anti-Terrorism Convention, but hasn't. Pakistani leaders obtusely deny that the Mumbai attacks were directed from Pakistan and, more broadly, that the country bears responsibility for India's security. Even a cursory look at the dossier should reveal rich, unimpeachable evidence, including Global Positioning System and satellite-telephone signatures; transcripts of conversations between the attackers and their handlers; arms with Pakistani markings; virtual phone numbers generated over the Internet; and the associated money trails. This evidence is strong enough to bear legal scrutiny in any civilised country. The whole world knows that it's the LeT's self-proclaimed goal to attack civilians in countries like India and undermine their governments. Indeed, that's the purpose for which it was created. But how does India convince/pressure Pakistan to act against the LeT and dismantle the jihadi/secret agency infrastructure? Theoretically, there are four ways: armed coercion, mediation through the United States, persuasive bilateral diplomacy, and multilateral intervention through the United Nations Security Council. The first option must be ruled out altogether: it's fraught with the danger of a Nuclear Holocaust. India's conventional superiority over Pakistan isn't great enough for Islamabad to want to avert war, leave alone yield to India's demands. Besides, it would play straight into the hands of Al-Qaeda-Taliban, which wants an India-Pakistan conflict so that Pakistani troops can be moved away from the Afghanistan border, relieving pressure on them and allowing them to overrun a region that has become the epicentre of global terrorism. India is investing heavily, but unwisely, into the second option--virtually outsourcing to the US its own responsibility to engage with Pakistan, in the belief that Washington would somehow persuade/force Islamabad to act against jihadi extremists. This assumes that Washington has such exceptional strategic proximity with India that it'll turn against or discipline Pakistan. However, going by experience, Washington can act in ways that breed/promote terrorism, as it did in Afghanistan in the 1980s. The US may not even be an honest broker between India and Pakistan. Apart from the imbalance and myopia typical of US policy, there's a huge risk in greater US involvement in this region. President-elect Barrack Obama plans to intensify the Afghanistan war by doubling the number of US troops. This will increase the United States' dependence on the Pakistani Army, and downgrade India's anti-terrorist concerns. The wisest approach for India is bilateral diplomacy combined with a Security Council-centred multilateral strategy. Post-Mumbai, India and Pakistan have only conducted "megaphone diplomacy." India should have used Track-II approaches and quietly engaged Pakistani officials, sharing with them, and confronting them with, evidence against the LeT. But the Singh government has behaved as if Track-II can only work in peacetime, not during crises. Various crises, including the Vietnam War and the US-USSR détente of the 1970s, show that Track-II is useful in emergencies too. Many of our senior officials, including the just-sacked National Security Adviser Durrani, and India's special envoy on Kashmir, Satinder Lambah, are Track-II veterans, who can still be drafted to produce results. India should approach the Security Council under a slew of resolutions, from 1373 to 1566, which cast a duty on all states to act against terrorists, refuse to harbour them, and inform one another about their activities. Failure to do so can invite sanctions. If Pakistan fails to act, India can demand "smart sanctions" which don't hurt the masses, such as suspension of military aid, travel bans on state functionaries, and monitoring of progress of actions against terrorist groups. Creative diplomacy is the need of the hour. Indian and Pakistani civil-society groups have taken welcome initiatives to show it's both possible and necessary. The least our governments can do is to follow them. The writer, a former newspaper editor, is a researcher and peace and human-rights activist based in Delhi. Email: prafulbidwai1@yahoo.co.in

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India provides evidence of the Mumbai terrorist attacks to Pakistan....

A page from the dossier given to Pakistan

Dossier: handlers used virtual number to contact a mobile with one of the terrorists

Siddharth Varadarajan (The Hindu, Wednesday, Jan 07, 2009)


New Delhi: Amidst the clutter of telephone calls the Indian intelligence agencies were monitoring into and out of the Taj Mahal hotel on the night of the November 26 terrorist attack was one from a ‘virtual number’ – 12012531824 — generated by a Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) telephony service based in the United States.

According to the dossier prepared by the Indian government outlining select details of what investigators have uncovered so far about last November’s Mumbai attacks, Pakistan-based “controllers/handlers used the virtual number to contact a mobile telephone with one of the terrorists. This conversation was intercepted and, thereafter, all calls made through the virtual number were also intercepted and recorded.”

Providing the first-ever details of the investigations into the VoIP account, the dossier says the virtual number was initially set up with a U.S. company, Callphonex, by an individual who identified himself as Kharak Singh from India.

The account was activated by a money gram transferred in the name of Mohammed Ashfaq. “Kharak Singh also requested Callphonex to assign five Austrian Direct Inward Dialling (DID) numbers because his clients called from different countries, including India,” the dossier says. The account was paid for by a money transfer of $238.78 through Western Union by one Javaid Iqbal who provided, as a form of identification, a Pakistani passport (No. KC 092481).

The dossier adds: “Investigations have revealed that Callphonex asked Kharak Singh if he was from India why the Western Union Transfer was coming from Pakistan.
No reply

Apparently, Callphonex received no reply. The VoIP interceptions yielded more evidence to Indian agencies as they revealed the use of three Austrian numbers “which were given to the terrorists by the controllers/handlers and conversations with these numbers by the terrorists were also intercepted and recorded,” the dossier notes.

These Austrian numbers, in turn, correspond to the DID numbers assigned by Callphonex to ‘Kharak Singh.’ The details of the VoIP account are one of multiple pieces of evidence the Indian government has laid out before Pakistan and all Delhi-based foreign envoys to prove its claim that the attacks on Mumbai were staged by elements from Pakistan.

Several ambassadors who were present at the region-wise briefings at the Ministry of External Affairs on Monday and Tuesday told The Hindu that they found the Indian dossier compelling. “It is fully in line with our own belief of how this incident was planned,” said one of the envoys from the group of 14 countries who lost citizens in the attacks.

In their oral presentations, Indian officials told the envoys of their belief that the ISI was indeed involved in the incident. Though this claim was not contested, at least one nation, the United States, has told India it is still not in a position to share this perception.

One of the transcripts contained in the dossier provides the answer to why the terrorists left their satellite phone behind on the Kuber with potentially incriminating data. “Did you open the locks for the water below,” a caller from Pakistan asked one of the terrorists at the Taj Hotel at 0126 hours on November 27, presumably in a reference to a pre-arranged plan to sink the trawler. “No, they did not open the locks. We left it like that because of being in a hurry. We made a big mistake,” the receiver of the phone call answered. “What big mistake?,” he was asked. “When we were getting into the boat, the waves were quite high. Another boat came. Everyone raised an alarm that the Navy had come. Everyone jumped quickly. In this confusion, the satellite phone of Ismail got left behind,” the terrorist replied. The dossier also notes in passing that the GPS set contained trackback points which “were the RV for their intended return after the attack.”

At Monday’s briefing for the 14 nations who lost citizens in the attack, one of the ambassadors asked Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon whether this meant the attack was perhaps not a suicide mission after all. Mr. Menon reportedly said that this was one of the issues which still needed to be probed.

The dossier also contains a second section in which India has attempted to draw attention to the contradictory nature of Pakistan’s response to the Mumbai attacks, Pakistan’s failure to respond appropriately to Indian requests for cooperation when evidence was provided to it about terrorist acts in the past, and an outline of Pakistan’s bilateral and international commitments and obligations.

The last section of the dossier contains an outline of what India expects Pakistan to do in the wake of the Mumbai attacks. “This was a conspiracy launched from Pakistan. Gaps in knowledge can be filled by investigation and interrogation of conspirators there,” the dossier states, adding, “Some of the actions that India expects Pakistan to undertake in extending cooperation to bring the terrorists to justice are: Hand over conspirators to face justice in India, hand over fugitives from Indian law based in Pakistan, Dismantle infrastructure of terrorism, Prevent terrorist acts from Pakistan, Adhere to and implement bilateral, multilateral and international obligations.”

The dossier notes that on the basis of the interrogation of Mohammed Ajmal Amir ‘Kasab,’ the lone terrorist to be captured alive, the role of Lashkar commander Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi in the training of the crew had been established. The terrorist group initially consisted of 32 persons but the team chosen for the operation was eventually whittled down to 10.

Other LeT commanders involved were Abu Hamza, ‘Kaahfa,’ and Yousuf alias Muzammil, the dossier says. Among the material evidence India has in its possession is the 11-seater inflatable dinghy the terrorists used to move from the hijacked trawler, Kuber, to Mumbai.

“An attempt was made by the terrorists to erase the engine number but it has been retrieved by investigators. The outboard motor number is 67 CL-1020015, manufactured by Yamaha Motor Corporation and imported into Pakistan and distributed by a company named ‘Business & Engineering Trends’ in Lahore.” Several items including toiletries, food articles, drums containing diesel and clothes “bear clear evidence of having been manufactured in Pakistan.” Photographs of all these items are provided in an annexure.

The transcripts in the dossier make it apparent that the six handlers were closely monitoring events in Mumbai through the live TV coverage which went on non-stop for 60 hours. “There are three ministers and one secretary of the cabinet in your hotel. We don’t know in which room,” a Pakistan-based caller tells a terrorist at the Taj at 0310 hrs on November 27. “Oh! That is good news” It is the icing on the cake!,” he replies. “Find those 3-4 persons and then get whatever you want from India,” he is instructed. “Pray that we find them,” he answers.

At the Oberoi at 0353 hrs on November 27, a handler phones and says:

“Brother Abdul. The media is comparing your action to 9/11. One senior police official has been killed.”

Abdul Rehman: “We are on the10th/11th floor. We have five hostages.”

Caller 2 (Kafa): Everything is being recorded by the media. Inflict the maximum damage. Keep fighting. Don’t be taken alive.

Caller: Kill all hostages, except the two Muslims. Keep your phone switched on so that we can hear the gunfire.

Fahadullah: We have three foreigners, including women. From Singapore and China.

Caller: Kill them. The dossier then notes that the telephone intercept records the “voices of Fahadullah and Abdul Rehman directing hostages to stand in a line, and telling two Muslims to stand aside. Sound of gunfire. Cheering voices in background. Kafa hands telephone to Zarar,” who says, “Fahad, find the way to go downstairs.”

In another call, to the Taj this time, a handler says, “The ATS chief has been killed. Your work is very important. Allah is helping you. The Vazir (minister) should not escape. Try and set the place on fire.”

At Nariman House at 1945 hrs on November 27, the handler ‘Wassi’ tells a terrorist: “Keep in mind that hostages are of use only as long as you do not come under fire because of their safety. If you are still threatened, then don’t saddle yourself with the burden of the hostages. Immediately kill them.” He then adds, “The Army claims to have done the work without any hostage being harmed. Another thing: Israel has made a request through diplomatic channels to save the hostages. If the hostages are killed, it will spoil relations between India and Israel.”

“So be it, God willing,” the terrorist replies.

.....


Telephone trail key part of evidence shared with Pakistan

Siddharth Varadarajan (The Hindu, Jan 07, 2009)

Indian dossier blames Lashkar, makes no mention of ISI



EVIDENCE: Among images included in the dossier on Pakistani links to the Mumbai terror attacks are those of (clockwise from top left) GPS equipment recovered from the Taj Mahal Palace; a 9-mm pistol with Peshawar markings found at one of the scenes of crime; and a packet of Pakistan-made milk powder found in the vessel Kuber.

New Delhi: The evidentiary dossier given to Pakistan on Monday marks the first systematic Indian presentation of what ongoing investigations into the Mumbai terrorist attacks have revealed so far.

Though many of the facts about how the attacks were staged have been known for some time now, the 69-page document — a copy of which is with The Hindu — provides crucial details about the telephone links between the attackers and Lashkar-e-Taiba operatives and identifies for the first time the names of six “Pakistan-based handlers” who were constantly in touch with the gunmen even as they wreaked havoc in the city during the November 26-29, 2008 incidents.

According to the dossier, the handlers who provided real-time commando-style advice to the terrorists holed up at the Taj Mahal and Oberoi hotels and Nariman House were ‘Wassi,’ ‘Zarar,’ ‘Jundal,’ ‘Buzurg, ‘Major General’ and ‘Kafa.’ Though the dossier does not identify any of the six as a functionary or operative of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, Indian officials say the links and affiliations of some of the aliases used by the handlers in their intercepted phone conversations with the terrorists have left New Delhi in no doubt about the involvement of the ISI in the attacks.

The government has prepared two versions of the dossier, one for the 14 countries which lost citizens in the attacks and a slightly redacted edition for Pakistan and the rest of the world. Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon handed over the dossier to ambassadors from the 14 countries on Monday. And on Tuesday, senior officials from the Ministry of External Affairs briefed envoys from other countries with diplomatic representation in India, including European, Middle Eastern and Latin American nations.

The dossier consists of a 13-page presentation of the main facts of the case and an outline of the evidence generated by the investigation to date. This evidence is then laid out further in a set of annexures.

The evidence includes eight partial transcripts of selected intercepted conversations between the terrorists and their handlers, data from the GPS equipment recovered from the fishing trawler, Kuber, photographs of ordnance used in the attack and items of daily use recovered from the Kuber, all with clearly identified Pakistani markings, and, most crucially, an account of the money trail linking Pakistan-based operatives to the purchase of the Voice Over Internet Protocol (VoIP) calling platform used by the handlers to try and mask their physical location.

.....

A scanned copy of the 69-page dossier

This is a scanned copy of the 69-page dossier of material stemming from the ongoing investigation into the Mumbai terrorist attacks of November 26-29, 2008 that was handed over by India to Pakistan on January 5, 2009.

Evidence 1

Evidence 2

Evidence 3

Evidence 4

http://www.hindu.com/nic/dossier.htm

....
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Ambassador Hussain Haqqani is all over the airwaves in America defending Pakistan's case. Times of India admits...

EDITORIAL COMMENT | The War of Words
30 Dec 2008,

After a week of belligerence, during which sharp words were traded, Indian and Pakistani officials are cooling it, for now. India's patience is
running thin and it is not hard to see why. A month after the devastating attack on Mumbai, despite evidence that points to the fact that the perpetrators came from across the border, Pakistan continues to deny facts and refuses to cooperate with the investigations or crack down on terrorist outfits that flourish on its soil. If that was not bad enough, Islamabad has gone on the offensive and whipped up a war hysteria that New Delhi has studiously stayed clear of despite being provoked.

As we have argued in these columns since the attack took place, talk of war or limited strikes is not the right response. The Indian government was right in being restrained and in working diplomatic channels to achieve its ends. By putting its case before the international community, and trying to mobilise a global consensus on tackling contemporary terrorism which more often than not originates in the Afghan and Pakistani badlands and knows no boundaries anymore it did what mature, confident democracies are supposed to do. However, we have failed on one important count that of communicating our position to the global public.

While our diplomats might be doing a fine job behind the scenes pressing India's case among our allies, as well as engaging with Pakistan's allies like Saudi Arabia and China they have been very tardy in working the world media. Pakistan's ambassador, Husain Haqqani, is all over the airwaves in America, defending Pakistan's actions and offering the view that Pakistan is as much a victim of terrorism as India is. President Asif Zardari too has been quick off the block when it comes to the public relations exercise, arguing an indefensible case. Where are the voices from the Indian establishment in the world media? Search, and you will draw a blank.

India has a strong case but it needs to do more to influence global opinion makers. If India hopes to get the international community to put pressure on Pakistan to act, then it is not enough for our diplomats and leaders to commiserate with their counterparts in influential countries alone. They must be seen out there, engaging with ordinary people who are now being fed a daily dose of Pakistan's rhetoric.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Opinion/Editorial/EDITORIAL_COMMENT__The_War_of_Words/articleshow/3909788.cms

...


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Was Mumbai the Kargil 2?Joining the jigsaw puzzle. Incriminating evidence against the unholy nexus between ISI and jihadi/sectarian forces in Pakistan

Was Mumbai the Kargil 2?

What is Pakistan Army/ISI upto this time?

Incriminating evidence against the unholy nexus between ISI and jihadi/sectarian forces in Pakistan

Spare a few minutes in reading the following various reports. Pause and reflect for little while. Try to connect various pieces of the jigsaw puzzle to trace the unholy nexus between the ISI and sectarian/jihadi militants in Pakistan.

Wake up Pakistani nation. It is time to save democracy. It is time get rid of extremism and violence, the evil legacy of General Zia.

.........

What happened to Pir Samiullah's body is a dangerous symbolism, because to many people in Swat it was wilfully permitted by the Army.

Hanging a dead pir – By Farhat Taj

http://letusbuildpakistan.blogspot.com/2008/12/what-happened-to-pir-samiullahs-body-is.html


…..

Indian military retaliation would play straight into LeT’s hands. - Praful Bidwai
There is no military option

http://letusbuildpakistan.blogspot.com/2008/12/indian-military-retaliation-would-play.html

….

India not the real enemy; militancy is - By Ayaz Amir
Will hypocrites such as Imran Khan and Qazi Hussain Ahmed listen to this sane voice?

http://letusbuildpakistan.blogspot.com/2008/12/india-not-real-enemy-militancy-is-by.html

……..


Toying with terrorism - Kamila Hyat reveals ISI's close association with the Taliban
Thursday, December 25, 2008 (The News)

http://letusbuildpakistan.blogspot.com/2008/12/toying-with-terrorism-by-kamila-hyat.html

……

Barbarism in Swat - By Khurshid Khan

SWAT’S Sangota Public School was blown to smithereens on Oct 7, 2008 — a dark day in the history of the area.

http://letusbuildpakistan.blogspot.com/2008/12/barbarism-in-swat.html

….

Unchecked fanaticism in NWFP and the criminal silence of Pakistan’s religious parties -(Dawn, Editorial)

http://letusbuildpakistan.blogspot.com/2008/12/unchecked-fanaticism-in-nwfp-and.html

……….

Barbarians at the gate - by Ghazi Salahuddin

http://letusbuildpakistan.blogspot.com/2008/12/barbarians-at-gate.html

…..

Is Pakistan a failed state? What is the relationship between ISI and jihadis? Do Pakistanis love Mullahs? An interesting analysis by Muhammad Hanif
BBC Urdu dot com

http://letusbuildpakistan.blogspot.com/2008/12/is-pakistan-failed-state-what-is.html

……..

Evidence of ISI's continued support for terrorism and sectarianism....Where is the suicide bomber Shakiel al-La'l ? 'ISI killing US troops in Afghanistan' – various reports

http://letusbuildpakistan.blogspot.com/2008/12/evidence-of-isis-continued-support-for.html

……..

Why did the Taliban in Swat exhume Pir Samiullah’s body... Because Pir was from Barelvi sect, and was opposed to the Taliban's militant activities...

by Delawar Jan

http://letusbuildpakistan.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-did-taliban-in-swat-exhume-pir.html

……

Why is ISI protecting Masood Azhar? What is the linkage between ISI, Jaish-e-Muhammad and Sipah-e-Sahaba? Various reports….

http://letusbuildpakistan.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-is-isi-protecting-masood-azhar-what.html

….

The double-cross role of ISI and Talibans in Pakistan's tribal areas. What do ordinary, informed Pakistanis think?

What do ordinary Paksitanis think about the role of ISI and Mullahs in terrorist activities in and outside Pakistan? Some comments:

http://letusbuildpakistan.blogspot.com/2008/12/double-cross-role-of-isi-and-talibans.html

…

Jihadi and Jasoosi cocktail in Pakistan - By Hasan Mujtaba of BBC Urdu dot com; Also comments on the movie "The Convoy of Death"

An interesting piece on Mullah Military Alliance (ISI-Jihadi Alliance) in Pakistan.

http://letusbuildpakistan.blogspot.com/2008/12/jihadi-and-jasoosi-cocktail-in-pakistan.html


…….

Was the Mumbai attack the Kargil 2? Does ISI wan to topple the democratic government of President Zardari in Pakistan? How can the UN help Pakistan?

An interesting conversation between some educated Pakistanis

http://letusbuildpakistan.blogspot.com/2008/12/was-mumbai-attack-kargil-2-does-isi-wan.html

…………

Nawaz Sharif says Ajmal Kasab from Faridkot, Pakistan

http://letusbuildpakistan.blogspot.com/2008/12/nawaz-sharif-says-ajmal-kasab-from.html
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Get rid of false patriotism. India needs voices such as Arundhati Roy and Pakistan needs voices such as Pervez Hoodbhoy.

Patriotism misunderstood
Legal eye

Saturday, December 27, 2008 (The News)
Babar Sattar

The terrorists have succeeded in realizing their objectives in Mumbai. Not just in carrying out the carnage that claimed innocent Indian lives, but also in provoking chest-thumping hysteria within the two nuclear armed neighbours that is obfuscating real issues and impeding their ability to meaningfully cooperate in confronting the threat of terrorism. With the peace constituency within India and Pakistan having shrunk at an alarming rate over the last few weeks, the Mumbai tragedy has dragged the two countries back by at least a decade in terms of their bilateral relationship. The ugly invidious prejudice that runs deep within each nation against the other now lies bare in public eye. And all this has happened despite the realization shared by saner elements in both countries that neighbours cannot be wished away and the linked destinies of the suffering multitudes in both India and Pakistan will not be served well by a war between them or even the politics of war-mongering.

The governments of Pakistan and India are in a catch-22 situation. The Mumbai attack has hurt India's sense of security as well as its newly found confidence and pride as an aspiring global power. The voices seeking accountability of the perpetrators of terror are probably more than those braying for revenge. But together they have put the Indian government under tremendous pressure to seek reprisals from Pakistan for the alleged involvement of its citizens. The Pakistani government and the civilian political leadership seem genuinely interested in taking to task those within the country whose link to Mumbai can be established through verifiable evidence. But given the history of acrimony between the two countries and how it informs the concept of national honour, the harder India pushes Pakistan publicly the lesser political space and ability the Pakistani government is left with to respond constructively.

One of the casualties of the Mumbai tragedy has been the quest for truth. The speed and ferocity with which media in India and Pakistan assumed on behalf of their respective states the responsibility for proving the other guilty of disseminating lies has been alarming. What has happened to the objectivity and self-restraint of this most vital component of civil society? The worst manifestations of bigotry and hatemongering in each country are being chosen and highlighted as a means to characterize the other. The statements of vengeance seeking politicians in India are regarded in Pakistan as the truly representative voices from India as opposed to the more responsible and tension diffusing statements of the Indian prime minister for example. Likewise, the voices of those in Pakistan who reject any involvement of Pakistanis in Mumbai and view it as an Indian conspiracy to put Pakistan in the dock reverberate across India and overshadow the repeatedly expressed government desire to work with India on establishing facts and taking action on their basis.

The self-styled 'patriots' in Pakistan believe that Arundhati Roy's 'Monster in the Mirror' is the depository of the whole truth about Mumbai and India. And likewise hawks in India love to highlight voices critical of Pakistani state policy – such as that of Pervaiz Hoodbhoy – as proof of their view of Pakistan as an evil state. The consistency in the analysis of Roy and Hoodbhoy – in terms of their denunciation of nuclear weapons or their emphasis on the atrocities inflicted on citizens by misconceived state policies – is lost on these new found disciples. Yet those who love Hoodbhoy in India hate Roy, and those who cite Roy with approval in Pakistan castigate Hoodbhoy for being a traitor. And the lack of awareness of such fundamental contradiction in hawkish views only goes to show the deep-seated bias that we are afflicted with. That patriotism cultivates the desire amongst citizens to defend the territorial integrity, sovereignty and honour of their country is a no-brainer. But reasonable people can and should disagree over how national interest is to be defined and what policies must be employed to accomplish the interest of the state.

In the context of Mumbai, Pakistani patriotism must not be reduced to jingoism or indiscriminately contradicting any views or facts emanating from India. Shutting out the urge to uncover facts and forfeiting the courage to look critically into the mirror out of the fear of discovering unflattering realities, even at a time even when the country is being unduly vilified, neither serves the interests of Pakistan nor qualifies as patriotism. Let us vigorously debate and agree/disagree over what policies and actions promote the collective interest of our nation. But neither the sabre-rattling of hawks on either side of our border, nor any misconceived concept of national interest or security should be allowed to mow down our appetite for the truth. There are some mothers who can never find any fault with their kids out of pride. And there are others whose love urges them to censure kids when they falter to enable these children to tell right from wrong and develop a character. We are only hurting ourselves most of all if, when under attack from abroad, we allow patriotism to degenerate into chauvinism or xenophobia.

The main issue between Pakistan and India that has led to the present state of belligerence and is dragging the two countries towards war is what happened in Mumbai: who all are responsible for killing innocent civilians there and to the extent that verifiable facts establish links with groups in Pakistan what steps can we take to bring the perpetrators to justice. We must not confuse manifestations of the whipped up antagonism post-Mumbai and the fighting words uttered in both countries with the cause itself. Also what are not issues for Pakistan in its interstate relations with India also needs to be highlighted. Whether or not India ill-treats its minorities, especially Muslims, is not our issue. We advocated a solution for the Muslims of Indian sub-continent in the form of Pakistan in full view that the Muslims left behind in India will be an even weaker minority in a Hindu-dominated India. We must reconcile with this reality and understand that the state of Pakistan has no mandate to speak for Indian Muslims. What happened in Gujarat was sad and despicable. But it is a reflection on the Indian federation and a matter for the Indian nation to resolve internally.

The state of Pakistan has the responsibility to promote and maximize the interests and security of the citizens of Pakistan. And as a nation we need more clarity in defining our identity and our national objectives. Faced with challenges straining the cohesion of our own social fabric and the frail state of interethnic relations within Pakistan, we must focus on strengthening our own federation rather than looking abroad and assuming the responsibility of guarding the perceived interests of foreign nationals who share our faith. What is also not an issue between the states of India and Pakistan is the cause of the Malegaon Blast or the Samjhota Express tragedy. These were crimes that were committed in India. And even though some of the casualties in the latter were Pakistani citizens, in terms of state responsibility, they are fundamentally different from the events of Mumbai.

Mumbai is a possible case of non-state actors from one state crossing the international border and unleashing terror in another. Malegaon and Samjhota are relevant only in that they highlight India's indigenous roots of terrorism and counter the propaganda that Pakistan is the fountainhead of violence in the region. But we must fathom that criminal acts do not give the Pakistani state a cause of action against the state of India. Pakistan and India have a very long history of hostility and mistrust and if we look backward rather than forward we will keep fighting till the cows come home. If the present state of flux is to be prevented from crystallizing into a new cold war between the neighbours, we must keep our focus on Mumbai. And to that end the first imperative step is to share with Pakistan the findings of a transparent, diligent and credible investigation that lays threadbare the facts of this tragedy.

Our overzealous patriots must realize that Ajmal Kasab's Pakistani identity does not make Pakistani nation or state complicit in the terror attacks. Taking affirmative steps to try and deny/hide his identity could. And India must understand that sharing evidence with Pakistan cannot be contingent upon Pakistan "doing more". For due process requires such evidence to be the trigger for any enforcement action that the Pakistani government can legitimately undertake.

The writer is a lawyer based in Islamabad. He is a Rhodes scholar and has an LL.M from Harvard Law School. Email: sattar@post.harvard.edu
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Was the Mumbai attack the Kargil 2? Does the ISI want to topple the the democratic government of President Zardari? How can the UN help Pakistan?

Was the Mumbai attack the Kargil 2? Does ISI want to topple the democratic government of President Zardari in Pakistan? How can the UN help Pakistan?

An interesting conversation between some educated Pakistanis


pejamistri Says:
December 17th, 2008 at 6:30 pm

It seems to me that ISI has asked all the “beardo brigade” members to focus on …..
There are several reasons for this. Initially it started with the bashing of political parties after the removal of the mad dictator, however after the Mumbai attacks, ISI decided exploit the misplaced/misguided patriotism of “educated” youth of Pakistan hence they went for an all out propaganda.


Pejamistri says:

December 24th, 2008 at 11:36 am

Earlier I mentioned that for the people of India and United States, the best thing is to support people of Pakistan. However true to their past governments of both countries (specially Indians are not interested in it) of course they believe that they can survive several more 9/11s, Mumbai attacks.
While the military of Pakistan is generating a war hysteria in Pakistan in an attempt to ride on the sentiments of false patriotism and win the “hearts” of people of Pakistan. However Indians are hitting the people of Pakistan where it hits the most i.e. Financially and Diplomatically.

Today Indians are trying to prevail over Sri Lankan government to cancel the upcoming Cricket tour of Pakistan. BTW Sri Lankan Army and Pakistan Military have been “comrades in arms” for a very long time , in fact mad dictator was in Sri Lankan Military headquarters when Nawaz Sharif sacked him , and their are news that Sri Lankan army helped him with intelligence during his visit their against the wishes of government of Pakistan.

Moreover India is going to make a case of economic sanctions against Pakistan early next year which may then cause stoppage of IMF’s installment next year.
Is it a coincidence that just after 1988 , Americans approved/invoked Pressler amendment and United Nations were worried about the Nuclear arms in the decade of 90’s , and now just after the mad dictator has gone and Pakistan is under civilian rule we find the US and Indians again trying to put Pakistan in economic jail.
That is why I ask my friends in US, why were they surprised about 9/11 when their own government asked for it , and how could they be surprised about “Manhattan dirty bombing” when their government is again asking for it. For eight years US, Indians, and some Europeans were supporting the mad dictator’s regime with 70 billion dollars , despite 7/7 (British 9/11 as they call it) they kept giving money to directly to Pakistan army and indirectly to extremists.

And now when there is a civilian government in Pakistan , they are making hue and cry about the 9/11 of a country which is just trying to be part of “civilized nations”, whose in civilized record is suspicious.
Remember Pakistan army wants war euphoria , they want to use Mumbai attacks to gain public sympathy and improve their reputation. They may even think of small Kargil like battle which could as usual be disaster, on the other hand Indians it seems are not interested in war instead they want economic sanctions against Pakistan. Whereas Americans are busy in transition.


pejamistri Says:
December 24th, 2008 at 1:01 pm

@GoTK
Just like you I am also waiting for Zardari to do one single thing right. It’s been a year and he could not get UN team for BB’s murder investigation.
There is a difference however between my disappointment and yours and that is if Zardari fails , I trust NS , if he fails I trust IK and if he fails too then I trus Zardari (if he is still there in Pakistan ) , and if he is not there I start trusting NS again , and if in the meanwhile GoTK becomes a popular politician I will start trusting him…. all the while democratic system is there , politician are fighting , defeating each other and I am voting….


Ghost Of TK says:
December 24th, 2008 at 4:08 pm

@peja: They may even think of small Kargil like battle which could as usual be disaster,

Out of the various possiblities, do you think Mumbai may have been Kargil_2 which the world has averted? ie; India attack pakistan, military gets to not fight its choochaa’s ??

I still am not sure. Though I am flip-flopping between fals-flag conspiracy theories (india/mossad did it using beardos) and Kargil-II (arms length ISI assets did it using .. you guessed it.. the beardo’s)

The reason I’m leaning towards a “plausibly deniable” inovlvement of the ISI networks is because Hamid Gul was really a cheery little fvcker right after the attacks and he came on one show and claimed he was lifting weights alredy to get ready for war and that 25 lakh retired fauji’s were ready to fight (the 2.5 million Bat-men … can you imagine the wings flapping?)

He has also been making statements last year that 2009 will be the “year of the revolution”. I’m sure JI and other PiThoo’s will like nothing better than “another revolution in the interest of the nation”

The level of activity in favor of “mard-e mujahid Hamid Gul” after such moronic interview was very interesting. On most news forums new ID’s started appearing with statements like “Hamid Gul is right! He is true mujahid…” etc. again.. a feeble attempt on the part of the agencies to give credence to his batshit crazy ideas …
so… was it a false flag by mossad?

or a self-directed false flag by Gul and company with the beardo’s given the kind of training that they would leave a trail of evidence that would lead to pakistan, cause a conflagaration, army moves out of swat/FATA to eastern border, emergency is declared and Kayani eventually takes over.

Also interesting was the near instantaneous re-aligning of the “Taliban” + Army opinion once India seemed ready to strike. “Mehsud is a patriot” … The same Mehsud that their frothy-mouthed stooge, Zaid Hamid declared to be a “RAW asset” a day before the “patriot” statement by ISPR.

????

We’re not out of the woods yet, because now the indians are complaining that Pakistan is creating ‘war hysteria’ … so that kind of gives credence to your ‘army wants war’ theory.


Pejamistri says:
December 24th, 2008 at 6:17 pm

@GoTK
I was away… but let me comments on your posts in chronological order… so first..
dude I got news. Zardari killed Benazir. Everything points to it. This is why he’s not moving on it……

Please excuse my famous “Know-All” expression , but that’s where I can not help using this.

You see I am all confusion and you are all “Sure” , I am all questions and you are all answers , I am the small x in indeterminate equation and you are the “(planck’s) constant” in equation. So you know Zardari killed BB , I want UN investigation team to find out who killed BB :)…

For the “Hosni Mubarik” thingy , I am amused there were two times when I got afraid of “Hosni Mubarik” phenomenon in Pakistan , once the “GREAT” ameer-ul-moomneen Hazrat General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq Rahmat-ullah Alaiha , ghazi-e-millat , faatih-e-Kabul were ruling , there is no doubt democratic forces trying their best to topple ameer-ul-moomneen, Junejo, young BB, mature Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan all were doing great, but you know “ameer-ul-moomneen” was not perturbed by them , he had a large following in the urban areas and he was pretty much settled to rule like Hosni Mubarik.

Second time it was briefly in the early 1997 , when Nawaz Sharif riding the huge popularity in both urban and rural part of Punjab, NWFP got the two-third majority. I was little bit worried as he was young , had right-wing ideas and was more acceptable in the military , therefore I thought may military has found their leader after death of “ameer-ul-moomneen”. But you know what , that was the time when my faith in politicians of Pakistan got a mega-boost as the presumed “ameer-ul-moomneen” turned out to be a politician and he got away with 8th amendment instead of implementing the shariah bill , he offered olive branch to India , instead of buying missiles for USA , and decided to sit on foot -toilet seat instead of sitting in P.M house chair at the mercy of fvcking generals…
So I can’t help smiling that you would think “Asif Zardari” can become Hosni Mubarik , if he does then well it will prove two things one you are really “Know-All” , second I am nuts … which means I need to do a “Beea’t” at your hands my guru… hahahah


Pejamistri Says:
December 24th, 2008 at 6:29 pm

@GoTK
Ref:24 December 2008 16:08
I am not actually interested in who did Mumbai attacks , to me it has no meanings/consequences who did or didn’t do it. I remember on BBC someone wrote an article calling Mumbai attacks a new phenomenon in terrorism which he called perhaps “show biz terrorism” where few disgruntled youth with few thousand dollars take up arms, knowing very well that there “show” will be telecasted live on all the sattelite channels :)…. So you see what I mean… it is not important at all who did it…

Important thing is who does what after Mumbai attacks. And that’s where I see Pak Army using it to generate the war hysteria and gaining public sympathies and maligning the politicians (see it is not only AZ but NS as well) …
And I see India using it to get economic sanctions on Pakistan.


Pejamistri says:
December 24th, 2008 at 7:16 pm

Coming to the Kargil-II possibility, it seems to me that it may quite be possible and I am really worried about this scenario. The Kargil-II has not happened yet , but it is quite possible that the army generals decide to embark on another misadventure , remember “Operation Gibralter” ,people usually think that it happened one night , in reality there were strained relations and blame game between Pakistan and India for quite sometime. There used to be “air space violations” , “firing along the LoC and borders” etc.. for quite a few months.
Looking at the chances of a Kargil-II, I would think they are merely 40% or below. As I said although army is ready to accept and acceptable level of survival , but they don’t want to commit suicide. It is true that they would like to have their image restored in the eyes of “urban educated” public , by creating war hysteria in major cities. At the same time they also want to mend their differences (or should I say hostility) with the Mullahs , they would like to get out of Mullah’s fire line, but they can not afford to have an all-out war with India , a small Kargil could have all the probability to lead to an all-out war…

…

Ghost Of TK Says:
December 24th, 2008 at 7:30 pm

@peja: re: seriously funny, fair enough, but then again, explain the GoP asking PRC to NOT BLOCK the resolution against JuD.

If there is a Mullah-Military nexus, this will weaken Mullah’s …

If kiyani is in control, then how did zardari dare to do it?

If there is a MM nexus, and Zardari did it anyways, then is not using the situation against the jurnails? Same thing that they were trying to use against him (ie; Kargil-II which I think mumbai was) courtesy of Mr. Qasab et. al.

……..

Pejamistri Says:
December 24th, 2008 at 7:43 pm

@GoTK
At the risk of annoying “Beardos” , let me put argument in another way…
If kiyani is in control, then how did zardari dare to do it?

If there is a MM nexus, and Zardari did it anyways, then is not using the situation against the jurnails?

You see you are the Muslim/Christian ,”a monotheist” , you believe that only one god rules Pakistan , it is either Kiyani or Zardari , or it may be a trinity Zardari-Kiyani-XYZ etc… I am the “hindu” , a polytheist whose “gods” are always fighting with each other , when the god of Sun wants the the Sun to shine , the god of clouds wants the clouds to rain … you see what I mean….

I have no idea why GoP will ask PRC not to block the resolution against JuD, I even have no idea whether it actually happened, I even have no idea if China is gay (loves Pakistan too much that it would STOP resolution against JuD on Pakistan’s instructions ) or straight (likes to play safe :)… I hope you understand what I mean).

So in a nutshell what China did was what he should have done … there is no question that any country will stop resolution against JuD after the Mumbai attacks.

……..

pejamistri Says:
December 24th, 2008 at 8:44 pm

Hasan Mujtaba on Kargil-II & Maulana Hippi..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/urdu/miscellaneous/story/2008/12/081223_hasan_column_sen.shtml …

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Pejamistri says:
December 25th, 2008 at 1:08 pm

It may not be surprising for me if I had read some research in collective human psychology (if there was any research) , however it is amazing that how the sense of “false patriotism” as I call it, blinds the people with facts and realities.
For example how easy it is to believe that the Pakistan army is so bestial , barbaric and cold blooded murderers that these soldiers won’t have qualms of conscious while burning alive the innocent little girls with chemical weapons , but how difficult it is to believe for the same people that the same army can kill the hindus (in Mumbai massacre).

These people have no problems in believing that this army is killing their own people , abducting their own people , selling their own people , but at the same time the same army is ready to die for the sake of same people.
In existentialism their is a term known as “Karamazov Nature” which means that a person can contemplate two extremes at once, let me quote here
Karamazov is just such a two-sided nature, fluctuating between two extremes, that even when moved by the most violent craving for riotous gaiety, he can pull himself up, if something strikes him on the other side. And on the other side is love.
I thought Karamzov nature applies only to individual , but can it also apply to the collection of humans?, is it possible that a cold blooded army on a killing spree of the humans has so much soft and caring heart that at the same time it is ready to defend the same people.

There is no question that the war hysteria being created by the Pakistan military , by having “low flying air force jets” , issuing “on my dead body” like audacious statements, is just part of re-branding themselves. I personally think that such attempts have no consequences , the constituency that such attempts targets is the “urban educated” population , remember we have seen such thing for over 11 years when their used to be 23rd March parades , weapon exhibition and Ghazi-e-millat ameer-ul-moomneen used to tell about the blessings of jihad , however just after his death the people of Pakistan choose the “lady in the green”….

The thing I got worried over the past on week is the possibility of another misadventure , until yesterday I give 40% chances of such a probability however after talking few people in Pakistan it seems that the probability could be higher than this.

Although I don’t have complete information but it seems that India is encouraging Pakistan army to go for a small scale misadventure , the important point is that India is no mood for an all-out war (which Pakistan army believes is good for them), however in that limited battle they want to tone down their own public anger , by as usual showing to the public that they defeated Pakistan army yet again (remember Kargil, 1971 etc..)… on the other hand Pakistan army believes that using “false patriotism” in the dozens of television channels they can create the similar false picture of their virtual success (again recall Kargil and 1965) … so it may give a win-win to both India and Pakistan…

The worrying thing however is that it is hard to trust Pakistan Army specially the known “internal rifts” and the possibility of use of nukes. It is very hard to find out how the limited war can turn out specially in this new world with communication revolution….

….

Pejamistri says:
December 25th, 2008 at 5:28 pm

@sashah,

Very interesting … you mentioned you have been visiting indian blogs , recently somebody posted here a question asking for links to indian blogs, would you be able to supply the links to those blogs I would be really interested as well…
Now coming to your response…

No doubt the role of militry in pakistan’s political history has not been good(even worst)

I am smiling at even worst why not just call it “has not been good”? … can you tell me what you mean by worst.. and what is meant by “has not been good” , to be honest it is very hard to judge the “has not been good” and “worst” , for example for some overthrowing the democratic government (for some government of NS and for some government of ZAB) is “not a good act” and for some it is worst?.. similarly it is hard to qualify acts of killing at lal masjid, waziristan , balochistan etc… as “not good” or “worst” , I would really appericiate if you could enlighten me which act of army has not bee “good” and which was “worst”….

Aaah… I would love to agree with you that the Kiyani is the angel…. remember I talked about the Karmazov nature … perhaps he has one such nature ….

My friend re-read my comments… just like I did , and reading them again I realized your words are very familiar to me …. the “verbal diarrhea guy” .. guess who?????
I am away from Pakistan and It makes me sad when I see Pakistanis fighting with each other on a Blog using abusive language. LACK OF TOLERANCE in EDUCATED Pakistanis.

……

kafka8 Says:
December 26th, 2008 at 10:18 am

@peja
i spoke to a few ppp insiders and they agreed that indeed zardari is trying to use america/india to cut the army down to size.
but my non-ppp friends insist that my hatred for faujistan has blinded me to the incompetence of zardaro.

what say ye…O’ faithful defender of all things democratic!!
ps: tk, shirkuh, bohkhari, nrkh…do jump in once peja replies

…….

Pejamistri says:
December 26th, 2008 at 11:12 am

@kafka8

I come from a “software engineering” background , there we use a term called “abstraction” , higher the level of abstraction, lower the visibility of implementation details. Most of the time I look at the politics in Pakistan from higher abstract level , where AZ, NS, IK , mad dictator, Kiyanis etc.. are less visible instead we have democratic force and establishment and the BATTLE.
Now coming back to your question, at lower abstract level , my conviction for AZ “cutting army down to size” is not based on the current , past or future actions of Zardari, they are based on simple theory of perpetual battle between establishment and the democratic forces. I explained this earlier somewhere that it is like a proverbial animosity between the cat and dog, I usually quote the example of NS in 1997 , who got the heavy public mandate and was (is?) a right wing leader , having (still?) vast sympathies in the establishment forces and having no visible differences in terms of right-wing (islamic?) policies for Pakistan…. but since he was a popular leader trusted by the people of Pakistan and came through democratic means , therefore his existence would mean extinction of the establishment (army), consequently he was overthrown…

AZ must have made several compromises with the army in order to get into the government (there may be hundreds of reasons why he made those compromises and why he did not adopt a rigid approach)…. remember BB in 1988 , when she made much worse compromises with the army in order to get the government. But these compromises do not have much impact on the battle between the two…

In fact I would like to rephrase/revert your question and you will see how much does it make sense?…. i.e.

I spoke to a few establishment insiders and they agreed that indeed establishment is trying to use america/india to cut the PPP/ANP/PMLN down to size.
So in a nutshell whether AZ is using America/India against the army or not at this moment, this battle is on , establishment (army) is on the look to find an opportune moment to send the “bloody civilians” back , and democratic force are steadily moving towards getting Pakistan out of woods…
P.S.

At this moment by the way establishment (army)’s only objective is to get their image repainted , they are using every opportunity for this purpose even at the cost of more deaths to the people of Pakistan (the war hysteria, giving room to extremist in NWFP, shaking hands with mullahs, threatening (hollow) US to bring drones down etc…)

…

Pejamistri says:
December 26th, 2008 at 8:46 pm

@GoTK
Ref:December 26th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
That’s pure politics, a rebellion within the party , remember there are very mature politicians in the rebellious group. YRG , AA, Safdar Abbasi’s etc.. of this PPP are not mere pawns

NS doing “very sensible politics” , “a mature politicians”.
IK making sure he himself align with the wishes of people
And so on and so on………

So do you get what it means by democratic forces? :)….
You know what, if everything went smooth and there is a mid term elections, I , like an “eighteen stone women”, will vote for NS this time (I will not be giving vote to AA+YRG group of PPP )… then there will be another rebellion against the Sharif Brothers , the great Javaid Hashmi leading the rebellious group , then again a mid term , and now I vote for AA+YRG … an so on and so on….
Some pessimism

Only thing I would be worried is another mad dictator. Then again pejamistri, then again the CJ , then again …. … haha………

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Pejamistri says:
December 26th, 2008 at 9:16 pm

@GoTK
At the very least one should criticize those areas,
heehehe… you are borrowing pharases from beardos a lot my friend…
There are so many people criticizing him (AZ), I am not talking about the critics on ….s which are just “bu11shit” …

Do you really know why there are 4 line news everyday YRG is staying , YRG is going, why Amin Fahim gets here daughter in Ireland , why Safdar Abbasi etc.. started appearing on news channels….

BTW there is a central executive committee meeting today…

and there is another statement from Ban Ki Mon about the UN team for investigation…
On UN investigation let me tell you important thing is the mandate of the UN team , there are several groups fighting about this , of course ISI the major one. There are voices about getting the UN investigation team formulated through a UN security council resolution… you can imagine what it will mean for all the players involved in BB’s murder….

….

Pejamistri says:
December 26th, 2008 at 9:59 pm

@GoTK

Just in case you get worried that somehow I am suggesting AZ may be involved in BB’s murder, you already know I don’t buy such bu!!shit…. the differences between all the people in PPP are purely political (and you know politics is based vested interest too… )

BTW you see my dilemma, in Pakistan, people are always talking in extreme , their are either satans or angels (no more humans)… of course this is because they have been dealing with satans (establishment) , therefore as their opposite they search for angels…. so it is hard for the “urban educated” people to understand what it means by being human and what it means by the “vested interest” of a human :)…

…

Marcvs_Tacitvs_Cicero Says:
December 27th, 2008 at 1:49 am

I admire @Peja as much as I admire Mukhtaran Mai.
I think @Peja knows EXACTLY how this is going to turn out. He knows that this ZPP government is fantastically incompetent and outdoes the previous BB governments in its corruption. He knows there will be another Martial Law. He knows Zardari will be swinging from a lamp post.

But just like a good rape victim, he has mentally accepted this situation.
What he writes is merely his process of psychological rationalization of the coming abuse he knows PPP workers will suffer. Like some masochist, he is getting ready.

Haakim-e-shahr bhi , majma’-e-’aam bhee
teer-e-ilzaam bhi , saNg-e-dushnaam bhee
SubH-e-naashaad bhi , roz-e-naakaam bhee
in kaa dam.saaz apnay siwaa kon hay
shahr-e-jaanaaN meN ab baaSafaa kon hay
dast-e-qaatil ke shaayaaN rahaa kon hay
rakht-e-dil baaNdh lo dil figaaro chalo
Phir hameeN qatl ho aa.eN yaaro chalo

……

Pejamistri says:
December 27th, 2008 at 6:27 am

@MTC
I was just going to ask you when is the next martial law, sometimes back you said it is not far off….

I think @Peja knows EXACTLY how this is going to turn out. He knows that this ZPP government is fantastically incompetent and outdoes the previous BB governments in its corruption. He knows there will be another Martial Law. He knows Zardari will be swinging from a lamp post.

EXACTLY I already know how is it doing it turn out… I predicted even before the elections happened. Remember

mausam aya tau nakhle-daar pe meer
sar-e-Mansoor ka hi baar aya

This is not because I am “MTC” or “GoTK” and I “Know-all” , this is because I have fought this battle for a long time , I know its rounds and I know what is coming next.

Yes the rape is inevitable , the rape of the nation at the hands of another mad dictator, along with its forces , but you know now it is not PPP only which is affected by this rape , it is the “Chief Justices”, “Nawaz Sharifs” and “Media” who are also unwilling victim in this rape…

However I don’t search for excuses for this “rape” , saying that “BB’s government was corrupt” , “Nawaz Sharif government was incompetent” and “AZ government is fantastically incompetent” is like saying since “the girl was too pretty, and she had lesser cloths , and the rapists was starved of s3x for many days , therefore my Lord please have mercy on the rapist!!!”

Or at the risk of annoying beardos again let me say this … “A woman with lesser cloth is more prone to rape than a woman in the viel… as there are male wolf out there on the look for them” … similarly “A corrupt government is more prone to be dismissed by the generals than a “government by angels” as military ba$tard$ are out there to rape bloody civilians“.

My friend until you understand why democracy produces people like “Bush” and “Blair” as the leaders in “civilized” society and why they are allowed to “rule” during their tenure, it will be hard for you to understand my “syndrome”, although I can perfectly understand your “genetic disorder” caused by the Ameer-ul-mooneen General Zia’s rape of this nation….

..

pejamistri Says:
December 27th, 2008 at 6:46 am

@GoTK
Thanks for the compliments…

It seems though you did not read my comments carefully , I mentioned that people look for “angels” because they are faced by “satans” and it is not the “common man” who looks for “angels” , it is the “urban educated” man…

And by AZ is still the C-in-C and is leading the troops :). There is no change….
I will come back to generalization/abstraction theory little bit later. In the meanwhile “do contribute on the death anniversary of shaheed-e-millat Mohtarama Benazir Bhutto” as who knows you may have to write something for “Shaheed-e-Jamhooriat Izzat Maaab Asif Ali Zardari”… I love when people have to write/say something against their convictions
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Indian military retaliation would play straight into LeT’s hands. - Praful Bidwai

There is no military option

by Praful Bidwai

Ultimately, it wasn’t superior firepower, sophisticated interception methods or commando training that explains how one of the Mumbai attackers was arrested alive. The key to that feat lies in the great courage shown by the city’s policemen in overpowering Mohammed Ajmal Amir Iman (Kasab) with nothing more than lathis after his accomplice Abu Ismail was killed.

Assistant sub-Inspector Tukaram Ombale held on to the barrel of Kasab’s gun even as he took a burst of fire and pounced on the man, allowing his colleagues to arrest him. Ombale died, but his bravery ensured that a key participant in the attack would live to tell the tale.

Kasab’s arrest is unique in the annals of anti-terrorist operations anywhere. His interrogation has produced invaluable evidence about the preparation for and execution of the attack.

Kasab must be tried scrupulously fairly and with full respect for his right to legal defence. A lawyer of unimpeachable competence must be drafted to defend him. His conviction cannot be a foregone conclusion merely because of the attack’s barbarity. His guilt must be proved on the highest norms of criminal law.

After Kasab’s disclosures to the police, there can be little doubt that Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba carried out the attack after putting recruits through rigorous training and ideological-political indoctrination for almost a year. The Pakistani media has since verified Kasab’s home address, and interviewed his father in Faridkot village in Punjab’s Okara district. The international community has confirmed the LeT’s involvement through the ban imposed on its sister organisation, Jamaat-ud-Daawa, by the United Nations Security Council under Resolution 1267.

The LeT isn’t just another jehadi group. It has had a special relationship with Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency. Unlike other groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammed, which are Deobandi, the LeT is Salafist and doesn’t believe in fighting governments in Islamic countries. The LeT doesn’t actively oppose the army’s anti-Taliban-Al-Qaeda operations at the Afghanistan border.

It’s not clear if the ISI or its “rogue” elements logistically supported the Mumbai attack. But it’s reasonably plain that the attackers’ main motive was to provoke a military response from India, which would cause a troops build-up at Pakistan’s eastern border. This would create a rationale for redeploying Pakistani troops from the western border—where they face considerable pressure from US-Pakistan operations—to the Indian border. This would allow Al Qaeda-Taliban fighters to regroup and overrun large swathes of Afghanistan and Pakistan

Secondarily, the attackers’ motive was to increase disaffection among Indian Muslims and provoke a backlash—to further help extremism. Mercifully, this hasn’t happened—despite the Sangh Parivar. The attacks have triggered unprecedented Hindu-Muslim unity and a spirited condemnation of terrorism by an overwhelming majority of India’s Muslim organisations.

Indian military retaliation would play straight into LeT’s hands. This would further destabilise Pakistan, which is already in a precarious condition, to the point of unravelling its state—with disastrous consequences for the whole region. The Indian government has acted with restraint and used diplomatic, not military, means to deal with the crisis. On December 11, Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee underscored this approach. In response to a demand for attacking Pakistan, he said: “That is not the point….I am making it quite clear that that is not the solution. Let us be very clear and frank that that is no solution.”

The meaning of the military option, advocated stridently by hawkish “strategic experts” and by Bharatiya Janata Party MPs like Arun Shourie should be plain. Shourie wants India to target Pakistan’s vital installations and keep Pakistan “preoccupied”, presumably through covert action, with its “own problems in Balochistan, in Gilgit, Baltistan”, etc. He said: “Not an eye for an eye; but for an eye, both eyes. For a tooth, (the) whole jaw.”

This is an insane prescription. Any India-Pakistan conflict is liable to escalate into nuclear war. In Nuclear Armageddon, there are no winners—only mega-deaths.

Even a limited nuclear exchange will kill millions of civilians in both countries. The economic and environmental damage will set us back by decades. A single Hiroshima/Nagasaki-type bomb will kill 8 to 20 lakh people in a big city. India and Pakistan both have scores of such bombs, indeed even more powerful ones.

In every conceivable war-gaming scenario—and many credible ones exist —, an India-Pakistan conflict has one inevitable outcome: full-scale war, in which Pakistan won’t hesitate to use nuclear weapons if it fears loss of territory. This will invite nuclear retaliation from India, with consequences too horrifying even to contemplate.

No leader has the moral right or political mandate to sacrifice millions of civilians. Only extremists with apocalyptic visions like RSS chief KS Sudarshan believe nuclear war is acceptable.

He recently told an interviewer: “Whenever the demons (Asuri powers) start dominating this planet, there is no way other than war…I know it will not stop there. It will be a nuclear war and a large number of people will perish. But … let me say with confidence that after this destruction, a new world will emerge, which will be very good, free from evil and terrorism.”

It’s dangerous to imagine that the threat of war can compel Pakistan into acting decisively against extremist groups. Indeed, Pakistan will respond with even greater bellicosity.

The idea of “surgical strikes” against terrorist training camps is equally harebrained. LeT camps are makeshift affairs, and poor candidate-targets for strikes. Any strike, however “limited”, will invite armed conflict. Pakistan isn’t Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, which the US could attack without fear of resistance because it crippled all military communications. Even covert action, which will require the creation of a new monster—”India’s own ISI”—will trigger escalation.

But there are alternatives. Manmohan Singh outlined a two-pronged approach: galvanising international opinion for effective action against terrorism, and persisting with diplomatic pressure on Pakistan. Domestically, he promised reform of internal security arrangements. US and UK pressure has already led to a ban on JuD. But India must develop a broader multilateral approach to avert getting drawn into Washington’s parochial plans for the region.

The best strategy would be to press Pakistan through UN Security Council Resolution 1373, under which sanctions can be imposed on a state that fails to “deny safe haven to those who finance, plan, support, or commit terrorist acts…” and violates its duty to “refrain from providing … support… to entities or persons involved in terrorist acts…”.

Bilaterally, India can achieve much by sharing evidence of the LeT’s role in the Mumbai attacks with Pakistan, and acting demonstrably to defuse suspicions about its covert operations in Balochistan and Afghanistan.

While revamping India’s internal security system, the Singh government should have followed the advice of Chief Justice KG Balakrishnan against using “questionable methods such as permitting indefinite detention of terror suspects…coercive interrogation techniques and the denial of the right to fair trial”, and his plea for “substantive due process”.

Regrettably, it has done the very opposite by having a law passed which replicates all the obnoxious provisions, including detention without charges for 180 days, of the discredited Prevention of Terrorism Act—except for making police confessions admissible as evidence. The National Investigative Agency Act too has flaws, including overcentralisation of powers, and their illegitimate extension to areas affected by insurgency and Left-wing extremism. These Acts must be undone.

The writer, a former newspaper editor, is a researcher and peace and human-rights activist based in Delhi. Email: prafulbidwai1@yahoo.co.in

Friday, December 26, 2008 (The News)
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